Pakistan-Iran Relations: Complex Dynamics

Pakistan and Iran had traditionally enjoyed cordial relations. When Pakistan was formed, Iran was the first country to recognize it. Iran (under Reza Shah Pahlavi) and Pakistan both were part of the western capitalist camp during the tight bipolarity of the cold war. Both were part of CENTO (originally known as Baghdad Pact) military alliance formed to contain Soviet influence. Iran even went over the board in terms of providing critical support to Pakistan during 1965 and 1971 wars. Iran also provided material support for Pakistan’s counter insurgency operations against Baluch separatists in 1970’s by sending in cobra gunships to assist Pakistan’s COIN operations. However, Pakistan-Iran relations changed rapidly in the aftermath of 1979 Iranian revolution which brought Khomeini into power and changed Iran’s outlook like never before.

In order to clearly understand the complex dynamics of Pak-Iran bi-lateral relations, we would go over different aspects of this relationship in the context of:

CPEC and India’s Chabahar gambit
Involvement of foreign funded proxies and subversive elements
Afghan conundrum and the rise of ISIS-Khorasan
Pakistan’s delicate diplomatic balancing between Saudi Arabia and Iran
CPEC and India’s Chabahar Gambit

Iran, India and Afghanistan in 2016 signed a transit accord to use Chabahar Port. India constructed Zaranj-Delaram highway in Afghanistan. Through this accord, the aim was to connect Iran-Afghan border town of Zaranj with the Iranian road network up to Chabahar in Iran’s Sistan Baluchistan. India’s Chabahar gambit is a masterstroke of realpolitik according to Indian strategic elite who view the region through a “Neo Curzonian” lens.

Indian strategists feared that a joint Pak-Chinese naval presence at Gwadar (mouth of Strait of Hormuz) would create a “Hormuz Dilemma” for India (akin to Malacca Dilemma for China) as most of India’s oil supplies pass from Strait of Hormuz. Chabahar in their perception would give India more regional strategic breathing space by outflanking China and by circumventing Pakistan for an alternative route to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Chabahar would also, in the opinion of Indian strategic thinkers, reduce Afghanistan’s dependency on Pakistan’s ports as Afghanistan is a landlocked country. India plans to invest approximately $500 million in Chabahar Port project.