The Losing Deterrence of TNW

After the completion of nuclear program utilizing strategy of sheltered pursuit, Pakistan successfully demonstrated its nuclear delivering capability by testing & deploying Short Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBM) and raising dedicated Squadrons for strategic strike back in late 90s. It enabled Pakistan to strike counter force assets of Indian armed forces with nuclear payload. This served as deadly blow to Indian XYZ strategy which was focused on accumulation of huge chunk of armored force close to border for giving decisive challenge to Pakistan by out numbering & out gunning its defensive measure. Deployment of Strategic WMDs by Pakistan nullified this tactic as such large force concentration is appealing target for any strategic weapon. To re shift the balance in their favor, the Indian strategists came up with a new solution which was named as Cold Start Doctrine (CSD). Though officially this doctrine existence is not acknowledged but there are enough indications which points out that this strategy is not a random myth but a well-organized & well executed pro-active war strategy. Cold Start Doctrine is based upon concept of small and rapid strikes on soft targets with in Pakistan territory without overcoming the Nuclear Threshold limit. This strategy enjoys benefit due to natural lack of strategic depth on Pakistan side, particularly, on Southern Punjab & Northern Sindh sectors. With Mountain regions of Suleiman on Western side, desert on Eastern side, this region serves as soft belly of Pakistan that can literally split Pakistan into two half if it fell in hands hostile invading force. This region joins Pakistan via water channel of Indus River, road & railway network thus playing a key strategic role in terms of land & sea based connectivity.

Its worthy to point out that Cold Start is strictly based upon mechanized invasion force. For rapid movements it’s crucial that invading forces must not face any credible resistance from defending forces plus the terrain should decisively support the mission & objective. Kashmir being a mountainous region serves as natural protection layer in between both states making movement of large forces under the dynamics of CSD impossible. Boggy Plains of North & Central Punjab might appear an appealing location but it is heavily defended by Pakistan army corps which thanks to robust network of railway & roads can rapidly move & deploy in very short interval of time. This capability was successfully demonstrated during 2002 Military Stand-off when Pakistan gave soft tactical defeat to Indian armed forces even before ignition of any conflict. Presence of river-canal systems, urban areas make Punjab good in ambush defensive tactics particularly against tanks in the form of ATGM fortifications. These factors application of CSD in Punjab region way risky in terms of losses related to time, life & equipment. South & Lower Sindh is covered with vast Marshy lands through which movement of heavy armor is not a possibility. This leaves only Desert terrains shared by Pakistan & India in the form of Great Thar desert (Punjab & Rajasthan). In deserts, terrain is neither well defined nor permanent, sand movement keep on shifting space so mass fortification is not possible. Vastness of desert offers flexibility in battle field tactics including flanking movements hence making it attractive target for any armored invasion. Though Pakistan have deployed its armored & mechanized armored groups close by but still it does not address the core issues by posing questions related to their rapid mobility & target acquisition in case of CSD inspired invasion.

India kept cold start doctrine in darkness, known to only close circles and started to prepare accordingly by pouring huge amount of funds. This included the purchase of relevant military hardware, establishment of robust C4ISR assets (Command for Intelligence Surveillance, Reconnaissance), improved training standards and adhering of CSD linked tactics in Corps deployed in Rajasthan. Currently India’s South Western Command (Corp I & X) and Southern Command (Corps XII & XXI) are affiliated directly or directly with CSD. Pakistan first tried to neutralize this threat by exploiting it at diplomatic level to address the threats to peace and ignition of arms race in long terms but Indian denial on existence of such doctrine & counter diplomacy rendered such attempts use less. This was the time Pakistan came up with unique solution to this unique problem.

Ahmad Ibrahim is a contributing analyst to CommandEleven on military strategy, tactics and operations. He has completed his MPhil in Strategic Studies from National Defense University in Islamabad.

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