Will Russia’s S-400 Deal With India Significantly Affect Its Ties With Pakistan?

India defied the US’ CAATSA sanctions threats by going through with its deal to purchase Russia’s S-400 air defense systems in a move that’s been widely discussed across the subcontinent. Most observers focused on the effect that this might have on Indian-American relations, which could in turn affect ties between India and China. Broader discussions concern the reasons why India is once again recalibrating its multi-alignment policy, the influence that Russia exerted over this process, and the implications for Eurasia’s overall balance of power.

Less discussed, however, is whether this deal will significantly affect Russian-Pakistani relations. Some have previously talked about this, but while that topic is once again being touched upon by a few within Pakistan, it hasn’t been covered all that comprehensively despite their rapidly expanding ties being one of the most unexpected but regionally impactful developments for many in recent years. What’s therefore needed is an objective assessment of whether or not this is even a factor in their ties, and if so, to what extent it can actually influence anything.

In short, this deal might complicate Pakistan’s national security, but the difficulties that it could create aren’t insurmountable and also shouldn’t be interpreted as being driven by any unfriendly desire by Russia to harm its new partner’s respective interests. Russia is India’s traditional military-technical partner so it’s not anything out of the ordinary that Moscow is outfitting New Delhi with these cutting-edge systems. Additionally, it should be noted that Russia already sold and delivered them to China before doing the same with India.

China and India are Russia’s top strategic partners, and Moscow aims to balance between them in a friendly, gentle, and non-hostile manner. This explains why it sold the same systems to each, all in an intent to preserve the military balance between them with a view towards consequently encouraging those two to resolve their issues through political means. Russia’s practice of “military diplomacy” differs from the US’ since the latter has a record of attempting to decisively shift the military balance in favor of its preferred partner in any pair of rivals in order to promote military solutions instead.

The S-400s are therefore regarded by Russia as more than just an air defense system since they clearly have a strategic purpose in terms of reshaping the complicated dynamics between that country, China, India, and the US. India’s decision to remain loyal to its deal despite the US’ CAATSA sanctions pressure was due to America mistreating that South Asian country over the past 18 months through those aforesaid threats, violating its exclusive economic zone, keeping it out of the loop with Afghanistan and AUKUS, and beginning to criticize its internal affairs (i.e. the state of democracy and human rights).

Andrew is an American Moscow-based political analyst specialising in the relationship between the US strategy in Afro-Eurasia, China’s One Belt One Road global vision of New Silk Road connectivity, and Hybrid Warfare.

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