CommandEleven is pleased to present an analysis written by Major General Mian Nadeem Ijaz (Retired), former Director General – Military Intelligence in the Pakistan Army.
Indian Options on Current Ladakh Situation
The Indians have created the present Ladakh crisis by their belligerent behaviour in the region since Modi’s re-election last year. India has tried to treat China as if it is one of the SAARC countries. The open threats to CPEC (China’s jewel in its OBOR vision) because it is running through Pakistan’s NAs & the abolishment of article 370/35A for IOJ&K with bifurcation of Kashmir & Ladakh into Union territories(with ramifications for Askai Chin area) has been seen very seriously by China.
The Chinese are prudently extending the perimeter of security for CPEC (by moving onto Shyok river & India’s Sub-Sector North through Galwan valley) & also ensuring that no envelopment move can germinate from western side of Askai Chin which can threaten the Western Highway from Tibet to China.
The following are India’s options in order of priority:
- Negotiations to save face like done by China at Doklam & return of Chinese troops to LAC. Some curtailment of road making (by India) to placate China & claiming it as peaceful resolution.
- Saving face by limited escalatory response like flights by helicopters, show of force through troop build up and firing(without causing Chinese casualties) along LAC incursion points. Then using Russia (to convince China) to deescalate situation and stabilising LAC.
- Military response to restore status quo or push Chinese back at one or two points of incursion, the Galwan Valley being priority. Based on assumption that Trump will openly come out in India’s diplomatic and logistic support. However, this will only be done if build up of about two division strength takes place in Galwan valley & finger areas 3 to 8 in Pangong lake.
Rider clauses:
- India will not go to UN as it means internationalising the IOJ&K dispute by India itself.
- Pakistan will be pressurised by U.S. & its money lenders like IMF/WB etc to remain out of the fray (like in 1962). Whether it is possible in present environment is another issue.
- Whatever additional Indian troops move into the area, they are now there to stay – whichever way the situation plays out. Both China & Pakistan will now have to factor in this aspect for the future.
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Reporting Deskhttps://www.commandeleven.com/author/dgmo/
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Reporting Deskhttps://www.commandeleven.com/author/dgmo/
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Reporting Deskhttps://www.commandeleven.com/author/dgmo/
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Reporting Deskhttps://www.commandeleven.com/author/dgmo/
 & also ensuring that no envelopment move can germinate from western side of Askai Chin which can threaten the Western Highway from Tibet to China.){kind=link}